Will anybody use Tesla’s robotaxis once they come to Austin? Most likely not

Tesla
is working furiously to affix the robotaxi market, and to nobody’s shock, the preliminary launch venue is slated to be Austin, Texas — house to the corporate’s international HQ. Talks with the Metropolis of Austin have been underway for months, and the automaker is planning to deploy a small fleet of

Model Y
s by the top of June or July, in response to CEO Elon Musk. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform has additionally been mounting enhancements.

Here is the factor, although — whereas I am presently in Edmonton, I spent over a decade dwelling in Austin, full with a Texan spouse and little one to show it. Figuring out the town, I’ve severe doubts about whether or not Tesla’s robotaxis will acquire any traction there, and never simply due to

FSD’s spotty track record
.

The unpopularity contest

Misjudging your viewers

Whereas it is sensible to launch in Austin from a logistical perspective, the fact is that Elon Musk is deeply unpopular with lots of locals, given his right-wing politics. Austin is a famously liberal metropolis, thanks partially to establishments like its music scene and the College of Texas at Austin. There is a notable LGBTQ+ district on 4th Road, and considered one of its best-known occasions is Eeyore’s Birthday, a free competition stuffed with issues like drum circles and wild costumes. There are conservative Austinites — notably within the Republican-dominated Capitol constructing — however within the 2024 Presidential elections, over 68% of Travis County voted for Kamala Harris.

Many locals are employed by Tesla, to make sure, however even a few of them dislike their controversial boss. And the Tesla showroom in The Area has been the location of a number of protests attacking Musk’s affiliation with US President Donald Trump, to not point out different figures within the far-right.

I am anticipating lots of Austinites to not solely ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, however actively boycott it. Teams could develop the present protests, and there is even the chance of vandalism and sabotage, given different well-publicized incidents across the US. Till Musk is pressured out of Tesla — assuming that ever occurs — there is a distinct chance that the one clients utilizing his robotaxis can be vacationers, Republicans, and apolitical sorts.

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Going through the competitors (and the town)

Penned in by Alphabet and MoPac

Waymo

Even when Austin had been as solidly Republican as Galveston, Tesla would nonetheless be going through one other main impediment: Waymo. Alphabet’s robotaxi service has been absolutely operational in Austin (via Uber) since March 2025, and was working in different cities previous to that. It is not solely firmly established in metropolis limits, however within the robotaxi business generally, with a commanding lead over different US rivals like Zoox.

Tesla does have a bonus in that it has been in a position to take a look at FSD in a variety of circumstances, because of a mixture of its personal information and that from personal automobile homeowners. It stays to be seen, nonetheless, if that can translate into the robotaxi world, a lot much less beat Waymo’s personal monitor report. Tesla has been conducting some advance testing on Austin streets, so it is at the least conscious that it could’t hit the bottom working.

On prime that, Austin itself is liable to be an impediment. There is a motive Waymo solely operates in a small space from Parker Lane within the south to Hyde Park within the north — getting anyplace else is difficult with out taking highways like MoPac (Loop 1), I35, and 183, and robotaxi companies usually keep away from highways in mild of the dangers concerned. Tesla will in all probability should function beneath the identical circumstances, intensifying its competitors with Waymo and limiting what number of passengers it could entice. Big suburban areas like Spherical Rock and Pflugerville (each of which I’ve lived in) can be out of attain, and main company workplaces belonging to Apple and Dell can be inaccessible.

I am not even assured Tesla’s FSD tech will have the ability to sort out Austin terrain (reliably). Having pushed these streets myself, I do know that there are many awkward intersections, by no means thoughts making an attempt to navigate them throughout building, rush hour, or the annual SXSW competition that pulls in 1000’s of individuals and blocks off downtown. Austinites are already complaining about how Waymo autos carry out — I can solely think about the nightmare of a newcomer multiplying the variety of robotaxis on the street. All robotaxis are inclined to drive overly cautiously, generally impeding site visitors, so there’s the potential for some severe site visitors jams, notably realizing that taxis from one firm haven’t got a manner of speaking with these from one other. A Waymo and a Mannequin Y stopped on a street like sixth or Congress would generate chaos.

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Is the scenario actually that dire?

Some last ideas

Tesla

Most likely not from Tesla’s perspective. It is planning to start out with simply 10 to twenty autos, and there is nearly actually a marketplace for that. It might encounter hassle scaling up, relying on public opinion and the progress of FSD, but I doubt Musk goes to surrender on testing considered one of his favourite initiatives in his yard. The person is dedicated to self-driving autos of every kind, so I anticipate that nothing in need of a severe accident will drive him to take robotaxis off the streets. Even then, it’d simply be a brief setback — Uber finally resumed autonomous testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in March 2018.

There may be elements I have not thought-about. Perhaps some liberal Austinites can be prepared to disregard Musk’s politics for the sake of a trip house from sixth Road — perhaps there are extra conservatives downtown than I am conscious of. In any occasion, we will discover out the reality very shortly, and that might decide how Tesla’s long-term autonomous plans go.

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